Everyone here at Daily Kos is painfully aware of 2016. Reminders of Clinton's loss are unnecessary. But perhaps the results of the 2016 voting, compared to polling stands in early June, can provide an encouraging look at 2020. Clinton's 3 point lead turned into a 2.09% loss, with another 5.73%, over 7.8 million votes going to third parties (compared to 2.1 million third party votes in 2012 and 1.6 million in 2008).
National polling for the 2020 presidential election has consistently shown the presumptive Democratic nominee with overwhelming leads.
From CNN: "A new ABC/Washington Post poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden clearly ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden's up by a 53% to 43% margin among registered voters in this survey.
But it's important to put individual polls into context, and that context continues to show Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began in the 1930s.
There were more than 40 national polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era. His average lead in a monthly average of polls has never dipped below 4 points and has usually been above it.
Indeed, the stability of Biden's edge has been what is most impressive. The May polls had Biden up by 6 points on average. It's where the average of polls conducted since the beginning of 2019 has been as well." (My bolding).
More encouraging is that the same poll showed Biden up 5 points among "Registered and certain to vote."
What might a 3, 4 or 5 point national win mean, spread relatively equally across the states? (Hopefully I got all these numbers right).
Starting with the states Democrats won in 2008, 2012 and 2016 gives Biden 233 Electoral Votes.
Now let's look at individual states where a 3 point swing would mean a Biden win.
Florida (2008: Obama by 1.8%; 2016 Trump by 1.2%). 29 EVs.
Michigan (Obama by 16.4%; Trump by 0.2%). 16 EVs.
Pennsylvania (Obama by 10.1%; Trump by about 0.7%). 20 EVs.
Wisconsin (Obama by 13.9%; Trump by about 0.7%). 10 EVs.
Those four states alone would bring Biden to 308 EVs.
Now let's look at states Obama won, but then Trump won big. Might they come back?
Iowa (Obama by 9.5%; Trump by 9.41%). 6 EVs.
Nebraska CD 2 (Obama by 1.2%; Trump by 3.7%). 1 EV.
North Carolina (Obama by 0.3%; Trump by 3.6%). 15 EVs.
Ohio (Obama by 4.6%; Trump by 8.1%). 18 EVs.
The most likely of the above are North Carolina and Nebraska CD 2. If Biden wins both that brings him to 324.
Ohio is trending R and Iowa has been a true toss-up, but if only Iowa comes home that brings Biden to 330 EVs.
States that Obama barely lost (but Trump won big) include Missouri (Obama lost by 0.01%) and Montana (Obama lost by 0.25%). Possibilities? Missouri is blood red but Montana may be in reach. 3 EVs.
Finally let's look at Arizona and Georgia. Arizona went to their home state Senator, John McCain, in 2008 by 8.5%, but in 2016 Clinton only lost by 3.6%. Polling shows a very competitive race, often with Biden ahead. That's 11 EVs. In 2008 Georgia went to McCain by 5.2%, and in 2016 to Trump by 5.2%. A stretch but a possible 16 EVs.
With Trump's massive unpopularity and incompetence it is entirely possible that Montana and Arizona drop into Biden's column, bringing him to 344 EVs, a huge win under any circumstance. And if voting swings even harder to Biden, if he wins by 7, 8 or 9% nationally, even Ohio, Missouri and Georgia might be in reach.
Of course, national polls are not the final word in American elections, but I thought it might be interesting to compare the 2008 and 2016 elections.
Today George Will called not only for Trump to be defeated, but also for his Congressional supporters, especially in the Senate, to be thrown out.
It won't be easy, Republicans cheat, but if we work hard, register new voters, and GOTV like our lives depended on it (and they do), we can send Trump to where he belongs: the ash heap of history.
